Quando si dice il rischio di contagio. Secondo Bloomberg le banche italiane hanno visto innalzato il costo dell’assicurazione del credito sui mercati internazionali a causa della diminuita percezione del merito di credito dello stesso Paese. “Italian banks survived the worst financial crisis in 70 years by lending to individual and corporate clients, and steering away from bets on markets, analysts say. About 61 percent of their assets are loans to clients, higher than Spanish, U.K., French and German banks, according to data compiled by ABI, Italy’s banking association. Ma come ricordano Martinuzzi, Sirletti e Keogh, autori dell’articolo “Italian banks survived the worst financial crisis in 70 years by lending to individual and corporate clients, and steering away from bets on markets, analysts say. About 61 percent of their assets are loans to clients, higher than Spanish, U.K., French and German banks, according to data compiled by ABI, Italy’s banking association. The country’s lenders also weigh less on the economy than banks in other European countries. Italian banks’ senior debt represents about 20 percent of the gross domestic product, the smallest amount among 11 nations, including the U.K., analysts at Barclays Plc wrote in a note published on Nov. 26. Irish bank debt is equal to about 38 percent of GDP and the debt of Spain’s banks is 54 percent of GDP, according to Barclays.
“The banking system is a relative strength in Italy, with a low risk profile, that’s been able to weather the financial crisis,” said Henry MacNevin, senior financial analyst at Moody’s Financial Institutions group. “Banks are in good shape, but their outlook is correlated to the economy.”
Ovvero, i credit default swap relativi alle banche italiane (Unicredit in particolare) possono anche innalzarsi, ma il sistema bancario è fondamentalmente sano e poco esposto agli stessi rischi di altri Paesi. Solo che non basta, c’è un rischio-Paese: e c’è anche un’economia che non decolla. Alla quale Dio solo sa quanto non servano crisi o elezioni.
John Maynard 